Hospitalization rates1 associated with COVID have dropped from a high of 132,500 Americans on January 6, 2021, to 71,500 on February 12, 2021. The U.S. had 920,000 staffed hospital beds in 2019,2 of which 14.4% harbored a COVID case in January 2021, and 7.8% do so far in February 2021. This tremendous drop was predicted. Every hospitalized patient is tested for COVID, often repeatedly, using PCR tests with high false positive rates. False positives are due in considerable part to exorbitant cycle thresholds. This refers to the maximum number of doublings that are allowed during the test. The problem caused by excessive cycle thresholds was well described in an August 2020 New York Times article,3 but has otherwise been ignored by the mass media. Dr. Sin Hang Lee, director of Connecticut-based Milford Molecular Diagnostics Laboratory, challenged4 the FDA's reliance on exorbitant cycle thresholds in its acceptance of efficacy claims for Pfizer's COVID-19 vaccine in early December 2020. He and FDA remain engaged in this debate. The WHO instructed PCR test users and manufacturers on December 14, 2020,5 and again on January 20, 2021,6 that PCR cycle thresholds needed to come down. The December 14 guidance stated WHO's concern regarding "an elevated risk for false SARS-CoV-2 results" and pointed to "background noise which may lead to a specimen with a high cycle threshold value result being [incorrectly] interpreted as a positive result." The first instruction7 has been superseded by the second, which additionally advises on clinical use of the test:8 If the "test results do not correspond with the clinical presentation, a new specimen should be taken and retested ..." While this implies that the test should only be performed in those with symptoms, and its results should be interpreted with the clinical context in mind, most PCR tests in the U.S. are used very differently: to screen asymptomatics at work, at colleges and universities and to permit border crossings. No Caution Is Applied to the ResultsOne single positive test defines someone as a COVID case. Yet, it is well known,9 and was acknowledged in WHO's January 2021 guidance, that screening in low COVID prevalence situations, such as in the screening of asymptomatics, increases the risk of false positives. And, the risk increases as the prevalence of disease drops, such that in situations of low disease prevalence, it is common to find that most positives are actually false positives. For example, see this [referenced] BMJ chart and then the real-life example in the comment below it.10 Everyone in the field knew that the PCR test results were bogus. Even Dr. Anthony Fauci admitted11 in July 2020 that cycle thresholds above 35 were not measuring virus, and furthermore that virus could not be cultured from samples that required a high number of cycles to show positivity. But the drumbeat from the Coronavirus Task Force12 and some academics13 and others14 was "test all, test often" — despite the inordinate numbers of false positives and negatives. Congress repeatedly15 allocated16 many billions of dollars for testing (often free for the person being tested) and so testing quickly mushroomed. Nearly 2 million COVID tests a day17 were recorded in the U.S. between November 20, 2020, and January 19, 2021. Most of these have been PCR tests that, despite their problems, are still considered the most accurate. Most of the remaining tests performed were rapid antigen tests. These tests too suffer from high false positive rates, as the FDA warned in November 2020.18 While daily deaths have only dropped about 15% since January 12, 2021, there have been dramatic drops during the month in new cases19 (down 60% from 250,000 new cases a day to 100,000) and, as noted, in hospitalizations20 (down 46%). Reports claim more than 486,000 Americans have died from COVID as of February 16, 2021.21 However, none of these numbers is reliable. In addition to inaccurate PCR results, a variety of other measures have skewed the reported number of deaths from COVID. While CDC electronically codes other causes of death, it has chosen to hand code every COVID death,22 and explains:
CDC Treating COVID Deaths DifferentlyI am waiting for CDC to answer my Freedom of Information Act query, which requested the protocol CDC's coders use for coding COVID-19 as a cause of death. Why is CDC treating COVID deaths differently from deaths due to other conditions? CDC changed the way it coded death certificates for a COVID-caused death in March 2020, to include everyone for whom COVID is in any way contributory to the death. By placing different parts of the instructions about coding on different web pages, CDC successfully hid what it was doing. On one page, the guidance23 states, "If COVID-19 is determined to be a cause of death, it should be reported on the death certificate." On a different webpage, CDC states: "When COVID-19 is reported as a cause of death on the death certificate, it is coded and counted as a death due to COVID-19."24 CDC has encouraged providers to be generous with COVID designations.25 And the COVID death definition appears to be a moving target,26 variable across states. CDC attempts to explain27 why its mortality numbers do not add up, and includes this excuse: "Other reporting systems use different definitions or methods for counting deaths." But it is CDC that chose not to issue uniform guidelines. COVID Diagnosis Liberally Applied
The Public Is in the DarkBy accepting excessive cycle thresholds for COVID PCR tests, CDC considerably expanded the numbers of COVID-positive cases, hospitalizations and deaths. By using a variety of idiosyncratic and changing statistical measures, CDC was able to control and further increase the number of deaths attributed to COVID-19. I do not mean to imply that the PCR tests, whose manufacturers may have recently reduced their cycle thresholds, are now accurate. Over 200 different PCR tests have been "authorized" under emergency rules36 by the FDA, which so far has not standardized or formally approved them. The public is in the dark as to whether and how each individual test may have changed in response to WHO's instruction, and we remain uninformed about the accuracy of each test. In fact, it has been established37 by the American College of Pathology that COVID-19 PCR test results are not reproducible. By hand-coding each death due to COVID, CDC gave itself the power to determine how many COVID deaths would be counted at any particular time. And by creating excessively loose case definitions38 for COVID, several of which did not require a single sign of illness, just a positive test, CDC was able to calibrate the number of COVID-positive cases by the rate at which it rolled out tests to the nation. Today, the media are telling us to rejoice. Maryland has just gotten its percentage of positive COVID tests below 5%,39 when a month ago the rate was 8.76%. In my state of Maine, a reduction in the percentage of test results that are positive has turned all counties “green,” allowing schools to be open.40 How much of this is due to dialing down the cycle thresholds? We Are Being Lied Into the AbyssThings are worse, things are better. Wear no mask41 — no, wear a mask — hey, wear two masks.42 New variants with even more infectivity are coming! But they are no more lethal, and SARS-CoV-2 is quite infectious already, so will the new strains make an appreciable difference? It seems that despite having recovered from COVID, you can be reinfected with the new viral strains. But how common is that? Does it simply mean you can have a positive PCR test, but be otherwise asymptomatic? I found only a single case report43 of a person becoming severely ill from a new strain after having recovered from original COVID.
Our families are being torn apart. Our small businesses are going bankrupt. Our countries, and probably we ourselves, are being scooped up by the banks, as borrowing on an unheard-of scale persists at a dizzying pace. Who will pay these debts? What will be the price? Can you see that the looting and crashing of our economies is intentional, buttressed by lie after lie? We are being lied into the abyss. Our so-called leaders are tossing us and especially our children and grandchildren over a cliff. They threw away our Constitution long ago. Now, they have stolen and sold our future. Please calm down. Turn off all the "news" and ponder what has been happening. We can fix this mess, once enough of us understand it. Give it the time and focus it deserves. Our leaders won't save us. Only WE can. from http://articles.mercola.com/sites/articles/archive/2021/02/26/pcr-test-false-positive-rate.aspx
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